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San Miguel vs San Martin S.J. — Primera Nacional 2026

San Miguel
San Miguel
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
3/9/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Miguel47%
×Draw31%
San Martin S.J.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Miguel
1.17
San Martin S.J.
0.72

San Miguel creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 100 away

creates per match

San Miguel
1.22
San Martin S.J.
0.76

allows per match

San Miguel
0.67
San Martin S.J.
1.11

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par
San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw
77%
San Miguel or San Martin S.J.
69%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
53%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+
20%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals
69%
San Miguel 2+ goals
33%
San Miguel 3+ goals
11%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
51%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
16%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)
67%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.11 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.22 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

San Martin S.J. attack 0.76 + San Miguel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Miguel scores more
47%
level
31%
San Martin S.J. scores more
23%

San Miguel at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Miguel 1–1 San Martin S.J.

San Miguel and San Martin S.J. drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Los Polvorines, Provincia de Buenos Aires.