San Martin S.J. 2–0 San Miguel: Result & Stats

San Martin S.J.

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Miguel

7/28/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 25Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

San Martin S.J.51%

×Draw29%

San Miguel20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchSan Miguel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.69

San Martin S.J.

1.29

San Miguel

0.69

San Martin S.J. creates 87% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 48 away

1.51

creates per match

0.56

0.81

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

1.51

San Miguel

0.56

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.81

San Miguel

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

San Miguel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

80%

San Martin S.J. or San Miguel

71%

Draw or San Miguel

49%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

24%

San Miguel wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

72%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

37%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

14%

San Miguel 1+ goals

50%

San Miguel 2+ goals

15%

San Miguel 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

72%

San Miguel (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 1.51 + San Miguel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.29

San Miguel attack 0.56 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

51%

level

29%

San Miguel scores more

20%

San Martin S.J. at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff