San Miguel 1–1 Agropecuario: Result & Stats

San Miguel

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Agropecuario

3/23/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 8Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

San Miguel48%

×Draw29%

Agropecuario23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MiguelExpected goals in this matchAgropecuario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.76

San Miguel

1.25

Agropecuario

0.76

San Miguel creates 64% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 126 away

1.22

creates per match

0.84

0.67

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

San Miguel

1.22

Agropecuario

0.84

allows per match

San Miguel

0.67

Agropecuario

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Miguel+0.00on par

Agropecuario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Miguel ↓

Agropecuario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Miguel or draw

77%

San Miguel or Agropecuario

71%

Draw or Agropecuario

52%

Winning margin

San Miguel wins by 2+

22%

Agropecuario wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

San Miguel 1+ goals

71%

San Miguel 2+ goals

36%

San Miguel 3+ goals

13%

Agropecuario 1+ goals

53%

Agropecuario 2+ goals

18%

Agropecuario 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

San Miguel (draw refunded)

68%

Agropecuario (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Miguel at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.67 · 46 matches

Agropecuario away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Miguel attack 1.22 + Agropecuario defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Agropecuario attack 0.84 + San Miguel defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Miguel scores more

48%

level

29%

Agropecuario scores more

23%

San Miguel at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Miguel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff