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Agropecuario vs San Miguel — Primera Nacional 2026

Agropecuario
Agropecuario
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
San Miguel
San Miguel
8/11/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 27Estadio Ofelia Rosenzuaig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Agropecuario48%
×Draw32%
San Miguel20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agropecuario
1.13
San Miguel
0.61

Agropecuario creates 85% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 48 away

creates per match

Agropecuario
1.19
San Miguel
0.56

allows per match

Agropecuario
0.67
San Miguel
1.06

finishing

Agropecuario+0.00on par
San Miguel+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agropecuario ↓

San Miguel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Agropecuario or draw
80%
Agropecuario or San Miguel
68%
Draw or San Miguel
52%

Winning margin

Agropecuario wins by 2+
21%
San Miguel wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Agropecuario 1+ goals
68%
Agropecuario 2+ goals
31%
Agropecuario 3+ goals
11%
San Miguel 1+ goals
46%
San Miguel 2+ goals
13%
San Miguel 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Agropecuario (draw refunded)
71%
San Miguel (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agropecuario at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.67 · 126 matches

San Miguel away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agropecuario attack 1.19 + San Miguel defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

San Miguel attack 0.56 + Agropecuario defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Agropecuario scores more
48%
level
32%
San Miguel scores more
20%

Agropecuario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Agropecuario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Agropecuario vs San Miguel

Agropecuario beat San Miguel 2-1 in Primera Nacional on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ofelia Rosenzuaig in Carlos Casares, Provincia de Buenos Aires.