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San Marzano vs Romana — Serie D - Girone G 2019

San Marzano
San Marzano
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Romana
Romana
10/8/2023Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marzano39%
×Draw29%
Romana32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marzano
1.17
Romana
1.03

San Marzano creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Marzano
1.41
Romana
1.24

allows per match

San Marzano
0.82
Romana
0.94

finishing

San Marzano+0.00on par
Romana+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marzano ↓

Romana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Marzano or draw
68%
San Marzano or Romana
71%
Draw or Romana
61%

Winning margin

San Marzano wins by 2+
16%
Romana wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Marzano 1+ goals
69%
San Marzano 2+ goals
33%
San Marzano 3+ goals
11%
Romana 1+ goals
64%
Romana 2+ goals
28%
Romana 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

San Marzano (draw refunded)
55%
Romana (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Romana away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marzano attack 1.41 + Romana defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Romana attack 1.24 + San Marzano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

San Marzano scores more
39%
level
29%
Romana scores more
32%

San Marzano at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Marzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Marzano vs Romana

San Marzano beat Romana 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania in Palma Campania.