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Romana vs San Marzano — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Romana
Romana
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Marzano
San Marzano
2/4/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Academy Sport Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Romana52%
×Draw26%
San Marzano21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Romana
1.50
San Marzano
0.85

Romana creates 76% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Romana
1.71
San Marzano
0.71

allows per match

Romana
1.00
San Marzano
1.29

finishing

Romana+0.00on par
San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Romana ↓

San Marzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Romana or draw
79%
Romana or San Marzano
74%
Draw or San Marzano
48%

Winning margin

Romana wins by 2+
27%
San Marzano wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Romana 1+ goals
78%
Romana 2+ goals
44%
Romana 3+ goals
19%
San Marzano 1+ goals
57%
San Marzano 2+ goals
21%
San Marzano 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Romana (draw refunded)
71%
San Marzano (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Romana at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Romana attack 1.71 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.50

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Romana defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Romana scores more
52%
level
26%
San Marzano scores more
21%

Romana at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Romana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Romana vs San Marzano

Romana beat San Marzano 2-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Academy Sport Center in Roma.