San Marzano 2–0 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

San Marzano

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Ostia Mare

3/17/2024

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 27Stadio Comunale Di Palma Campania

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Marzano38%

×Draw27%

Ostia Mare35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MarzanoExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.21

San Marzano

1.28

Ostia Mare

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

1.41

creates per match

1.60

0.82

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

San Marzano

1.41

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

San Marzano

0.82

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Marzano+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marzano ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

San Marzano or draw

65%

San Marzano or Ostia Mare

73%

Draw or Ostia Mare

62%

Winning margin

San Marzano wins by 2+

17%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

San Marzano 1+ goals

72%

San Marzano 2+ goals

37%

San Marzano 3+ goals

14%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

70%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

34%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

San Marzano (draw refunded)

52%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marzano at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marzano attack 1.41 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + San Marzano defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Marzano scores more

38%

level

27%

Ostia Mare scores more

35%

San Marzano at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Marzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff