Ostia Mare 2–2 San Marzano: Result & Stats

Ostia Mare

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

San Marzano

11/5/2023

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 10Stadio Anco Marzio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ostia Mare49%

×Draw28%

San Marzano23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ostia MareExpected goals in this matchSan Marzano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.82

Ostia Mare

1.34

San Marzano

0.82

Ostia Mare creates 63% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 17 away

1.39

creates per match

0.71

0.93

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Ostia Mare

1.39

San Marzano

0.71

allows per match

Ostia Mare

0.93

San Marzano

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

San Marzano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostia Mare ↓

San Marzano →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ostia Mare or draw

77%

Ostia Mare or San Marzano

72%

Draw or San Marzano

51%

Winning margin

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

23%

San Marzano wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

74%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

39%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

15%

San Marzano 1+ goals

56%

San Marzano 2+ goals

20%

San Marzano 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

68%

San Marzano (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostia Mare at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.93 · 46 matches

San Marzano away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostia Mare attack 1.39 + San Marzano defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

San Marzano attack 0.71 + Ostia Mare defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ostia Mare scores more

49%

level

28%

San Marzano scores more

23%

Ostia Mare at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ostia Mare will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff