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San Martino Speme vs Luparense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
0 – 2
Luparense
Luparense
L. Rivi 18', 15'
12/5/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme24%
×Draw24%
Luparense52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
1.09
Luparense
1.70

Luparense creates 56% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Luparense
1.21

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Luparense
1.30

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Luparense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
48%
San Martino Speme or Luparense
76%
Draw or Luparense
76%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
9%
Luparense wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
66%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
30%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
10%
Luparense 1+ goals
82%
Luparense 2+ goals
51%
Luparense 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
32%
Luparense (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Luparense attack 1.21 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
24%
level
24%
Luparense scores more
52%

Luparense at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
L. Rivi
18'
L. Rivi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 0–2 Luparense

Luparense beat San Martino Speme 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 5, 2021.

Goals: L. Rivi (15', 18').

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.