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Luparense vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Luparense
Luparense
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
L. Rivi 85' (pen)
M. Ruggero 31'
G. Laurenti 2'
T. Polo 15'
4/14/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 29Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Luparense59%
×Draw22%
San Martino Speme18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Luparense
1.85
San Martino Speme
0.91

Luparense creates 103% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Luparense
1.58
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Luparense
0.99
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Luparense+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Luparense ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Luparense or draw
82%
Luparense or San Martino Speme
78%
Draw or San Martino Speme
41%

Winning margin

Luparense wins by 2+
35%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Luparense 1+ goals
84%
Luparense 2+ goals
55%
Luparense 3+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
60%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
23%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Luparense (draw refunded)
77%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Luparense at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.99 · 100 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Luparense attack 1.58 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.85

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Luparense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Luparense scores more
59%
level
22%
San Martino Speme scores more
18%

Luparense at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Luparense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
G. Laurenti
15'
T. Polo
31'
M. Ruggero
85'
L. RiviPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Luparense 3–1 San Martino Speme

Luparense beat San Martino Speme 3-1 in Serie D - Girone C on April 14, 2022.

Goals: G. Laurenti (2'), T. Polo (15'), M. Ruggero (31'), L. Rivi (85' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Gianni Casée in San Martino di Lupari.