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San Martino Speme vs Delta Porto Tolle — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
1 – 0
Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
11/7/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 8Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme26%
×Draw24%
Delta Porto Tolle50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
1.13
Delta Porto Tolle
1.66

Delta Porto Tolle creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 30 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Delta Porto Tolle
1.13

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Delta Porto Tolle
1.37

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
50%
San Martino Speme or Delta Porto Tolle
76%
Draw or Delta Porto Tolle
74%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
10%
Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
68%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
31%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
11%
Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
81%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
49%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
34%
Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.13

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
26%
level
24%
Delta Porto Tolle scores more
50%

Delta Porto Tolle at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 1–0 Delta Porto Tolle

San Martino Speme beat Delta Porto Tolle 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.