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Delta Porto Tolle vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Delta Porto Tolle
Delta Porto Tolle
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
3/26/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 25Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delta Porto Tolle49%
×Draw24%
San Martino Speme27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delta Porto Tolle
1.71
San Martino Speme
1.19

Delta Porto Tolle creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 17 away

creates per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.29
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Delta Porto Tolle
1.55
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delta Porto Tolle ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Delta Porto Tolle or draw
73%
Delta Porto Tolle or San Martino Speme
76%
Draw or San Martino Speme
51%

Winning margin

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+
27%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals
82%
Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals
51%
Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals
24%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
70%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
33%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)
65%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delta Porto Tolle at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 31 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.29 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Delta Porto Tolle scores more
49%
level
24%
San Martino Speme scores more
27%

Delta Porto Tolle at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Delta Porto Tolle 2–1 San Martino Speme

Delta Porto Tolle beat San Martino Speme 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Umberto Cavallari in Porto Tolle.