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San Martino Speme vs Clodiense — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Clodiense
Clodiense
G. Dalla Bernardina 55'
F. Di Maira 76'
5/8/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme19%
×Draw23%
Clodiense58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
0.92
Clodiense
1.81

Clodiense creates 97% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Clodiense
1.44

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Clodiense
0.95

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Clodiense+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Clodiense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
42%
San Martino Speme or Clodiense
77%
Draw or Clodiense
81%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
6%
Clodiense wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
60%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
23%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
7%
Clodiense 1+ goals
84%
Clodiense 2+ goals
54%
Clodiense 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
24%
Clodiense (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Clodiense away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.95 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Clodiense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.92

Clodiense attack 1.44 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
19%
level
23%
Clodiense scores more
58%

Clodiense at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'
G. Dalla Bernardina
76'
F. Di Maira

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Martino Speme 1 – 1 Clodiense

San Martino Speme and Clodiense drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on May 8, 2022.

Goals: G. Dalla Bernardina (55'), F. Di Maira (76').

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.