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Clodiense vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Clodiense
Clodiense
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
I. Ouro 83'
G. Fasolo 41'
A. Kaptina 30', 13'
12/22/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 16Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Clodiense63%
×Draw22%
San Martino Speme15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Clodiense
1.81
San Martino Speme
0.73

Clodiense creates 148% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 17 away

creates per match

Clodiense
1.49
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Clodiense
0.65
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Clodiense+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Clodiense ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Clodiense or draw
85%
Clodiense or San Martino Speme
78%
Draw or San Martino Speme
37%

Winning margin

Clodiense wins by 2+
37%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Clodiense 1+ goals
84%
Clodiense 2+ goals
54%
Clodiense 3+ goals
27%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
52%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
17%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Clodiense (draw refunded)
81%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Clodiense at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.65 · 82 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Clodiense attack 1.49 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Clodiense defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Clodiense scores more
63%
level
22%
San Martino Speme scores more
15%

Clodiense at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Clodiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. Kaptina
30'
A. Kaptina
41'
G. Fasolo
83'
I. Ouro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Clodiense 4 – 0 San Martino Speme

Clodiense beat San Martino Speme 4-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 22, 2021.

Goals: A. Kaptina (13', 30'), G. Fasolo (41'), I. Ouro (83').

The match was played at Stadio Aldo e Dino Ballarin in Chioggia.