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San Martino Speme vs Cjarlins Muzane — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
D. Marini 18'
M. Bussi 10'
3/13/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 24Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme24%
×Draw24%
Cjarlins Muzane52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
1.05
Cjarlins Muzane
1.67

Cjarlins Muzane creates 59% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Cjarlins Muzane
1.15

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Cjarlins Muzane
1.23

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Cjarlins Muzane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
48%
San Martino Speme or Cjarlins Muzane
76%
Draw or Cjarlins Muzane
76%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
9%
Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
65%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%
Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
81%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
50%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
32%
Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Cjarlins Muzane away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.15 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
24%
level
24%
Cjarlins Muzane scores more
52%

Cjarlins Muzane at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
M. Bussi
18'
D. Marini
85'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 1–1 Cjarlins Muzane

San Martino Speme and Cjarlins Muzane drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone C on March 13, 2022.

Goals: M. Bussi (10'), D. Marini (18').

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.