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Cjarlins Muzane vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Cjarlins Muzane
Cjarlins Muzane
FT
4 – 1
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
10/31/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 7Stadio Via Rizzolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cjarlins Muzane54%
×Draw24%
San Martino Speme22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cjarlins Muzane
1.75
San Martino Speme
1.04

Cjarlins Muzane creates 68% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.37
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Cjarlins Muzane
1.26
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Cjarlins Muzane+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cjarlins Muzane ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cjarlins Muzane or draw
78%
Cjarlins Muzane or San Martino Speme
76%
Draw or San Martino Speme
46%

Winning margin

Cjarlins Muzane wins by 2+
30%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Cjarlins Muzane 1+ goals
83%
Cjarlins Muzane 2+ goals
52%
Cjarlins Muzane 3+ goals
25%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
65%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Cjarlins Muzane (draw refunded)
71%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cjarlins Muzane at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cjarlins Muzane attack 1.37 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.75

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Cjarlins Muzane defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cjarlins Muzane scores more
54%
level
24%
San Martino Speme scores more
22%

Cjarlins Muzane at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cjarlins Muzane will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cjarlins Muzane vs San Martino Speme

Cjarlins Muzane beat San Martino Speme 4-1 in Serie D - Girone C on October 31, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Via Rizzolo in Carlino.