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San Martino Speme vs Caldiero Terme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
2/27/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 22Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme22%
×Draw24%
Caldiero Terme54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
1.03
Caldiero Terme
1.76

Caldiero Terme creates 71% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 47 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Caldiero Terme
1.34

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Caldiero Terme
1.19

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Caldiero Terme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
46%
San Martino Speme or Caldiero Terme
76%
Draw or Caldiero Terme
78%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
8%
Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
64%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
28%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%
Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
83%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
52%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
29%
Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.03

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
22%
level
24%
Caldiero Terme scores more
54%

Caldiero Terme at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 0–2 Caldiero Terme

Caldiero Terme beat San Martino Speme 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.