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Caldiero Terme vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
3 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
L. Moscatelli 88'
F. Peli 59'
L. Zerbato 44'
10/17/2021Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 5Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Caldiero Terme53%
×Draw24%
San Martino Speme24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.71
San Martino Speme
1.06

Caldiero Terme creates 61% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
76%
Caldiero Terme or San Martino Speme
76%
Draw or San Martino Speme
47%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
29%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
82%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
51%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
24%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
65%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
29%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
69%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.71

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
53%
level
24%
San Martino Speme scores more
24%

Caldiero Terme at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'
L. Zerbato
59'
F. Peli
88'
L. Moscatelli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Caldiero Terme 3–0 San Martino Speme

Caldiero Terme beat San Martino Speme 3-0 in Serie D - Girone C on October 17, 2021.

Goals: L. Zerbato (44'), F. Peli (59'), L. Moscatelli (88').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero in Caldiero.