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San Martino Speme vs Arzignano Valchiampo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Arzignano Valchiampo
Arzignano Valchiampo
4/23/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 30Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme16%
×Draw20%
Arzignano Valchiampo64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martino Speme
0.97
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.12

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

San Martino Speme
0.88
Arzignano Valchiampo
2.06

allows per match

San Martino Speme
2.18
Arzignano Valchiampo
1.06

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par
Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Arzignano Valchiampo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw
36%
San Martino Speme or Arzignano Valchiampo
80%
Draw or Arzignano Valchiampo
84%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+
6%
Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+
40%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals
62%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
25%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
7%
Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals
88%
Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals
62%
Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
20%
Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Arzignano Valchiampo away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.06 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

San Martino Speme scores more
16%
level
20%
Arzignano Valchiampo scores more
64%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: San Martino Speme 3–3 Arzignano Valchiampo

San Martino Speme and Arzignano Valchiampo drew 3-3 in Serie D - Girone C on April 23, 2022.

The match was played at Campo San Martino Buon Albergo in San Martino Buon Albergo.