Arzignano Valchiampo 4–0 San Martino Speme

Arzignano Valchiampo

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

San Martino Speme

12/8/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 13Stadio Tommaso Dal Molin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arzignano Valchiampo69%

×Draw19%

San Martino Speme13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arzignano ValchiampoExpected goals in this matchSan Martino Speme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

0.82

Arzignano Valchiampo

2.21

San Martino Speme

0.82

Arzignano Valchiampo creates 170% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

2.29

creates per match

0.82

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Arzignano Valchiampo

2.29

San Martino Speme

0.82

allows per match

Arzignano Valchiampo

0.82

San Martino Speme

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arzignano Valchiampo+0.00on par

San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arzignano Valchiampo ↓

San Martino Speme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Arzignano Valchiampo or draw

87%

Arzignano Valchiampo or San Martino Speme

81%

Draw or San Martino Speme

31%

Winning margin

Arzignano Valchiampo wins by 2+

45%

San Martino Speme wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Arzignano Valchiampo 1+ goals

89%

Arzignano Valchiampo 2+ goals

65%

Arzignano Valchiampo 3+ goals

38%

San Martino Speme 1+ goals

56%

San Martino Speme 2+ goals

20%

San Martino Speme 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Arzignano Valchiampo (draw refunded)

85%

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arzignano Valchiampo at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arzignano Valchiampo attack 2.29 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.21

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Arzignano Valchiampo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Arzignano Valchiampo scores more

69%

level

19%

San Martino Speme scores more

13%

Arzignano Valchiampo at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Arzignano Valchiampo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff