San Martino Speme 0–3 Adriese: Result & Stats

San Martino Speme

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Adriese

M. Farinazzo 90+2'

F. Costa 72'

B. Gioe 64'

12/19/2021

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 15Campo San Martino Buon Albergo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Martino Speme24%

×Draw23%

Adriese52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martino SpemeExpected goals in this matchAdriese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.77

San Martino Speme

1.12

Adriese

1.77

Adriese creates 58% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

0.88

creates per match

1.36

2.18

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

San Martino Speme

0.88

Adriese

1.36

allows per match

San Martino Speme

2.18

Adriese

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martino Speme ↓

Adriese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

San Martino Speme or draw

48%

San Martino Speme or Adriese

77%

Draw or Adriese

76%

Winning margin

San Martino Speme wins by 2+

9%

Adriese wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

San Martino Speme 1+ goals

67%

San Martino Speme 2+ goals

31%

San Martino Speme 3+ goals

10%

Adriese 1+ goals

83%

Adriese 2+ goals

53%

Adriese 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

San Martino Speme (draw refunded)

31%

Adriese (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martino Speme at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martino Speme attack 0.88 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.12

Adriese attack 1.36 + San Martino Speme defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Martino Speme scores more

24%

level

23%

Adriese scores more

52%

Adriese at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

59'

64'

B. Gioe

72'

F. Costa

90+2'

M. Farinazzo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff