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Adriese vs San Martino Speme — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Adriese
Adriese
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
San Martino Speme
San Martino Speme
D. Rosso 56', 27'
5/1/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 32Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Adriese59%
×Draw22%
San Martino Speme19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adriese
1.88
San Martino Speme
0.95

Adriese creates 98% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Adriese
1.64
San Martino Speme
0.82

allows per match

Adriese
1.07
San Martino Speme
2.12

finishing

Adriese+0.00on par
San Martino Speme+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adriese ↓

San Martino Speme →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Adriese or draw
81%
Adriese or San Martino Speme
78%
Draw or San Martino Speme
41%

Winning margin

Adriese wins by 2+
35%
San Martino Speme wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Adriese 1+ goals
85%
Adriese 2+ goals
56%
Adriese 3+ goals
29%
San Martino Speme 1+ goals
61%
San Martino Speme 2+ goals
25%
San Martino Speme 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Adriese (draw refunded)
76%
San Martino Speme (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adriese at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 100 matches

San Martino Speme away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adriese attack 1.64 + San Martino Speme defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.88

San Martino Speme attack 0.82 + Adriese defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Adriese scores more
59%
level
22%
San Martino Speme scores more
19%

Adriese at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
D. Rosso
56'
D. Rosso

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adriese vs San Martino Speme

Adriese beat San Martino Speme 2-0 in Serie D - Girone C on May 1, 2022.

Goals: D. Rosso (27', 56').

The match was played at Stadio Luigi Bettinazzi in Adria.