San Martín 0–2 Real Avilés: Result & Stats

San Martín

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Real Avilés

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 24Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

San Martín38%

×Draw29%

Real Avilés33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San MartínExpected goals in this matchReal Avilés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.07

San Martín

1.18

Real Avilés

1.07

San Martín creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 28 away

1.07

creates per match

1.18

0.96

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

San Martín

1.07

Real Avilés

1.18

allows per match

San Martín

0.96

Real Avilés

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par

Real Avilés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Real Avilés →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

San Martín or draw

67%

San Martín or Real Avilés

71%

Draw or Real Avilés

62%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+

16%

Real Avilés wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals

69%

San Martín 2+ goals

33%

San Martín 3+ goals

12%

Real Avilés 1+ goals

66%

Real Avilés 2+ goals

29%

Real Avilés 3+ goals

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)

54%

Real Avilés (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Real Avilés away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Real Avilés defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Real Avilés attack 1.18 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Martín scores more

38%

level

29%

Real Avilés scores more

33%

San Martín at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 0–2 Real Avilés

Real Avilés beat San Martín 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.

San Martín vs Real Avilés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: San Martín 0–2 Real Avilés