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Real Avilés vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Real Avilés
Real Avilés
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Martín
San Martín
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Román Suárez Puerta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Real Avilés45%
×Draw25%
San Martín30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Avilés
1.54
San Martín
1.20

Real Avilés creates 28% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 78 away

creates per match

Real Avilés
1.54
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Real Avilés
1.27
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Real Avilés+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Avilés ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Real Avilés or draw
70%
Real Avilés or San Martín
75%
Draw or San Martín
55%

Winning margin

Real Avilés wins by 2+
23%
San Martín wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Real Avilés 1+ goals
79%
Real Avilés 2+ goals
45%
Real Avilés 3+ goals
20%
San Martín 1+ goals
70%
San Martín 2+ goals
34%
San Martín 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Real Avilés (draw refunded)
60%
San Martín (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Avilés at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Avilés attack 1.54 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.54

San Martín attack 1.12 + Real Avilés defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Real Avilés scores more
45%
level
25%
San Martín scores more
30%

Real Avilés at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Real Avilés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Avilés vs San Martín

Real Avilés and San Martín drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta in Avilés.