Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Académica do Soyo vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2025

Académica do Soyo
Académica do Soyo
FT
0 – 1
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
7/14/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 17Estádio dos Embondeiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Académica do Soyo49%
×Draw30%
Recreativo do Libolo22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Académica do Soyo
1.25
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

Académica do Soyo creates 71% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

creates per match

Académica do Soyo
1.13
Recreativo do Libolo
0.59

allows per match

Académica do Soyo
0.88
Recreativo do Libolo
1.36

finishing

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Académica do Soyo ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Académica do Soyo or draw
78%
Académica do Soyo or Recreativo do Libolo
70%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
51%

Winning margin

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+
22%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals
71%
Académica do Soyo 2+ goals
36%
Académica do Soyo 3+ goals
13%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
52%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)
69%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Académica do Soyo at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Académica do Soyo attack 1.13 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.59 + Académica do Soyo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Académica do Soyo scores more
49%
level
30%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
22%

Académica do Soyo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Académica do Soyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Académica do Soyo 0–1 Recreativo do Libolo

Recreativo do Libolo beat Académica do Soyo 1-0 in Girabola on July 14, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio dos Embondeiros.