Recreativo do Libolo 3–0 Académica do Soyo

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

3 – 0

Académica do Soyo

3/10/2012

Girabola · Round 2Estádio Municipal de Calulo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo52%

×Draw28%

Académica do Soyo20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchAcadémica do Soyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.71

Recreativo do Libolo

1.34

Académica do Soyo

0.71

Recreativo do Libolo creates 89% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 8 away

1.43

creates per match

0.63

0.78

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.43

Académica do Soyo

0.63

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.78

Académica do Soyo

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Académica do Soyo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

Académica do Soyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

80%

Recreativo do Libolo or Académica do Soyo

72%

Draw or Académica do Soyo

48%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

25%

Académica do Soyo wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

74%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

39%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

15%

Académica do Soyo 1+ goals

51%

Académica do Soyo 2+ goals

16%

Académica do Soyo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

72%

Académica do Soyo (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.78 · 40 matches

Académica do Soyo away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.43 + Académica do Soyo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.34

Académica do Soyo attack 0.63 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

52%

level

28%

Académica do Soyo scores more

20%

Recreativo do Libolo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff