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San Martín vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

San Martín
San Martín
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lenense
Lenense
C. Rubio 69'
Y. Gonzalez 1'
M. Djoulde Bah 49'
10/12/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio El Florán

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

San Martín49%
×Draw27%
Lenense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martín
1.39
Lenense
0.86

San Martín creates 62% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 96 away

creates per match

San Martín
1.07
Lenense
0.76

allows per match

San Martín
0.96
Lenense
1.71

finishing

San Martín+0.00on par
Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martín ↓

Lenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Martín or draw
77%
San Martín or Lenense
73%
Draw or Lenense
51%

Winning margin

San Martín wins by 2+
24%
Lenense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martín 1+ goals
75%
San Martín 2+ goals
40%
San Martín 3+ goals
16%
Lenense 1+ goals
58%
Lenense 2+ goals
21%
Lenense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Martín (draw refunded)
68%
Lenense (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martín at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martín attack 1.07 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Lenense attack 0.76 + San Martín defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Martín scores more
49%
level
27%
Lenense scores more
23%

San Martín at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
Y. Gonzalez
49'
M. Djoulde Bah
69'
C. Rubio
San
Lenense
Jubel Sánchez
Manager: Jubel Sánchez
Manolo Simón
Manager: Manolo Simón

Match Recap: San Martín vs Lenense

San Martín beat Lenense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 12, 2025.

Goals: Y. Gonzalez (1'), M. Djoulde Bah (49'), C. Rubio (69').

The match was played at Estadio El Florán in San Martín del Rey Aurelio.