Lenense 1–2 San Martín: Result & Stats

Lenense

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

San Martín

Kodiou Sidibé 28'

Sergio Camblor 88'

Muhamadou Janneh 42'

2/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Lenense41%

×Draw26%

San Martín33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LenenseExpected goals in this matchSan Martín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.22

Lenense

1.41

San Martín

1.22

Lenense creates 16% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 78 away

1.27

creates per match

1.12

1.32

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Lenense

1.27

San Martín

1.12

allows per match

Lenense

1.32

San Martín

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lenense+0.00on par

San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lenense ↓

San Martín →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lenense or draw

67%

Lenense or San Martín

74%

Draw or San Martín

59%

Winning margin

Lenense wins by 2+

20%

San Martín wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lenense 1+ goals

76%

Lenense 2+ goals

41%

Lenense 3+ goals

17%

San Martín 1+ goals

70%

San Martín 2+ goals

34%

San Martín 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lenense (draw refunded)

56%

San Martín (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lenense at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.32 · 98 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lenense attack 1.27 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.41

San Martín attack 1.12 + Lenense defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lenense scores more

41%

level

26%

San Martín scores more

33%

Lenense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lenense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Kodiou Sidibé

42'

Muhamadou Janneh

53'

Alex Reyes← Álex Padrón

65'

Berto Fernández← B. Diarrassouba

65'

Y. Bamba← Muhamadou Janneh

71'

Carlos Blanco← Kodiou Sidibé

78'

F. Allah← M. Bamba

78'

M. Amando← Monte

80'

Sergio Ismael← R. Palermo

80'

R. Alvarez← Pablo Sánchez

88'

Sergio Camblor

90'

Alvaro Sánchez← Luismi

90'

Pedro Clute← Javier Lopez

Lenense

San

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⚽

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▼

▼

▼

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▼

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Sidibé

Arias

Manager: Alfonso Arias

71'▲Carlos Blanco←▼Kodiou Sidibé

80'▲Sergio Ismael←▼R. Palermo

80'▲R. Alvarez←▼Pablo Sánchez

90'▲Alvaro Sánchez←▼Luismi

90'▲Pedro Clute←▼Javier Lopez

Lenense substitutes

BlancoIsmaelAlvarezSánchezClute

Manager: Julio Llanos

53'▲Alex Reyes←▼Álex Padrón

65'▲Berto Fernández←▼B. Diarrassouba

65'▲Y. Bamba←▼Muhamadou Janneh

78'▲F. Allah←▼M. Bamba

78'▲M. Amando←▼Monte

San Martín substitutes

ReyesFernándezBambaAllahAmando

Match Recap: Lenense vs San Martín

San Martín beat Lenense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 27, 2022.

Goals: Kodiou Sidibé (28'), Muhamadou Janneh (42'), Sergio Camblor (88').

The match was played at Estadio ALTOSDEMONTECERRAO.COM - El Sotón in Pola de Lena.

Lenense vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lenense vs San Martín