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San Martin Tucuman vs Ferro Carril Oeste — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
2/18/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 2Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

San Martin Tucuman46%
×Draw29%
Ferro Carril Oeste25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.24
Ferro Carril Oeste
0.82

San Martin Tucuman creates 51% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 132 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.25
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.08

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
0.57
Ferro Carril Oeste
1.23

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
75%
San Martin Tucuman or Ferro Carril Oeste
71%
Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste
54%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
21%
Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
71%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
35%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
13%
Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
56%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
20%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
65%
Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.08 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
46%
level
29%
Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
25%

San Martin Tucuman at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: San Martin Tucuman 1–0 Ferro Carril Oeste

San Martin Tucuman beat Ferro Carril Oeste 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio La Ciudadela in Tucuman.