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Ferro Carril Oeste vs San Martin Tucuman — Primera Nacional 2026

Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
6/22/2025Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 19Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste38%
×Draw32%
San Martin Tucuman30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.00
San Martin Tucuman
0.85

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 18% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 118 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.25
San Martin Tucuman
0.91

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
0.80
San Martin Tucuman
0.76

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par
San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

San Martin Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw
70%
Ferro Carril Oeste or San Martin Tucuman
68%
Draw or San Martin Tucuman
62%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
15%
San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
63%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
26%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
8%
San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
57%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
21%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
56%
San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

San Martin Tucuman away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.76 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

San Martin Tucuman attack 0.91 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
38%
level
32%
San Martin Tucuman scores more
30%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Ferro Carril Oeste 0–2 San Martin Tucuman

San Martin Tucuman beat Ferro Carril Oeste 2-0 in Primera Nacional on June 22, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry in Buenos Aires.