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San Martin Tucuman vs Chacarita Juniors — Primera Nacional 2026

San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
4/4/2026Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 8Estadio La Ciudadela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

San Martin Tucuman48%
×Draw30%
Chacarita Juniors22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Tucuman
1.22
Chacarita Juniors
0.74

San Martin Tucuman creates 65% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 123 away

creates per match

San Martin Tucuman
1.25
Chacarita Juniors
0.92

allows per match

San Martin Tucuman
0.57
Chacarita Juniors
1.19

finishing

San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par
Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Tucuman ↓

Chacarita Juniors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin Tucuman or draw
78%
San Martin Tucuman or Chacarita Juniors
70%
Draw or Chacarita Juniors
52%

Winning margin

San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
21%
Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
70%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
34%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
12%
Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
52%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
17%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
68%
Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Tucuman at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.57 · 117 matches

Chacarita Juniors away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Tucuman attack 1.25 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chacarita Juniors attack 0.92 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Martin Tucuman scores more
48%
level
30%
Chacarita Juniors scores more
22%

San Martin Tucuman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Martin Tucuman vs Chacarita Juniors

San Martin Tucuman and Chacarita Juniors drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on April 4, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio La Ciudadela in Tucuman.