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Chacarita Juniors vs San Martin Tucuman — Primera Nacional 2026

Chacarita Juniors
Chacarita Juniors
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
San Martin Tucuman
San Martin Tucuman
8/22/2021Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 22Estadio de Chacarita Juniors

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Chacarita Juniors33%
×Draw32%
San Martin Tucuman36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacarita Juniors
0.94
San Martin Tucuman
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 118 away

creates per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.12
San Martin Tucuman
0.91

allows per match

Chacarita Juniors
1.06
San Martin Tucuman
0.76

finishing

Chacarita Juniors+0.00on par
San Martin Tucuman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacarita Juniors ↓

San Martin Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Chacarita Juniors or draw
64%
Chacarita Juniors or San Martin Tucuman
68%
Draw or San Martin Tucuman
67%

Winning margin

Chacarita Juniors wins by 2+
12%
San Martin Tucuman wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chacarita Juniors 1+ goals
61%
Chacarita Juniors 2+ goals
24%
Chacarita Juniors 3+ goals
7%
San Martin Tucuman 1+ goals
63%
San Martin Tucuman 2+ goals
26%
San Martin Tucuman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Chacarita Juniors (draw refunded)
48%
San Martin Tucuman (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacarita Juniors at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.06 · 124 matches

San Martin Tucuman away — creates 0.91, concedes 0.76 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacarita Juniors attack 1.12 + San Martin Tucuman defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.94

San Martin Tucuman attack 0.91 + Chacarita Juniors defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chacarita Juniors scores more
33%
level
32%
San Martin Tucuman scores more
36%

San Martin Tucuman at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Martin Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chacarita Juniors vs San Martin Tucuman

San Martin Tucuman beat Chacarita Juniors 3-1 in Primera Nacional on August 22, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio de Chacarita Juniors in General San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.