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San Martin S.J. vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
10/4/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 11Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.35%
×Draw32%
Instituto Cordoba34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
0.97
Instituto Cordoba
0.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Instituto Cordoba
0.98

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Instituto Cordoba
1.04

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Instituto Cordoba-0.29scores less

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Instituto Cordoba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
66%
San Martin S.J. or Instituto Cordoba
68%
Draw or Instituto Cordoba
65%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
13%
Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
62%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
25%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
7%
Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
62%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
25%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
50%
Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.98 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
35%
level
32%
Instituto Cordoba scores more
34%

San Martin S.J. at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. ZalazarInstituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba · D
7.3

Match Events

20'
Leonel Mosevich
46'
S. Moreyra← L. Mosevich
46'
J. E. Cordoba Mosquera← J. Acevedo
52'
S. Jaurena← D. Gonzalez
52'
S. Salle← M. Iacobellis
52'
S. Barrera← S. Gonzalez
59'
Nicolas Watson
64'
T. Fernandez← I. Maestro
67'
M. Gallardo← L. Klimowicz
67'
M. Fonseca← J. Mendez
74'
Gastón Lodico
76'
Manuel Roffo
78'
Santiago Salle
78'
Tomás Fernández
78'
Jhon Córdoba
83'
F. Mac Allister← G. A. Lodico
87'
J. Cavallaro← H. Tijanovich
90+1'
Tomas Lecanda
90+1'
Fernando Alarcón

Possession

45%San

Shots

16San

Pass accuracy

50%San

Statistics

SanInstituto
Overview
45%Possession55%
16Total Shots8
0.48Expected Goals (xG)0.45
4Corners4
17Fouls18
Shots
16Total Shots8
2On Target0
12Off Target6
2Blocked2
7Inside Box4
9Outside Box4
Passing
45%Possession55%
275Total Passes340
210Accurate Passes263
76%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves2
0.36Goals Prevented0.36
Discipline
17Fouls18
3Yellow Cards5
1Red Cards0
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 0–0 Instituto Cordoba

San Martin S.J. and Instituto Cordoba drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 4, 2025.

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.