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Instituto Cordoba vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Instituto Cordoba
Instituto Cordoba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
N. Zalazar 87'
3/29/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Presidente Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Instituto Cordoba46%
×Draw30%
San Martin S.J.24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Instituto Cordoba
1.21
San Martin S.J.
0.77

Instituto Cordoba creates 57% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 9 away

creates per match

Instituto Cordoba
1.17
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Instituto Cordoba
0.77
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Instituto Cordoba-0.11scores less
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Instituto Cordoba ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Instituto Cordoba or draw
76%
Instituto Cordoba or San Martin S.J.
70%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
54%

Winning margin

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+
21%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals
70%
Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals
34%
Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals
12%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
54%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
18%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)
66%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Instituto Cordoba at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.77 · 16 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Instituto Cordoba attack 1.17 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.21

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Instituto Cordoba defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Instituto Cordoba scores more
46%
level
30%
San Martin S.J. scores more
24%

Instituto Cordoba at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Instituto Cordoba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
N. ZalazarInstituto CordobaInstituto Cordoba · D
8.2

Match Events

12'
Nicolás Cordero
17'
Damián Batallini
32'
Franco Toloza
45+1'
D. Puebla← J. Acevedo
46'
S. Romero← N. Cordero
49'
J. Lazaro← D. Batallini
52'
Nicolas Pelaitay
61'
S. Jaurena← N. Pelaitay
61'
H. Tijanovich← E. Montagna
66'
Silvio Romero
66'
G. A. Lodico← F. Diaz
72'
Horacio TijanovichPenalty cancelled
78'
E. Pernia← F. Anselmo
81'
Tomas Lecanda
87'
N. Zalazar↳ A. Luna
88'
J. Menendez← D. Gonzalez
89'
J. Cavallaro← A. Portillo
90'
Alex Luna
90+2'
Horacio Tijanovich
90+1'
Alejandro Molina

Possession

59%Instituto

Shots

17Instituto

Pass accuracy

57%Instituto

Statistics

InstitutoSan
Overview
59%Possession41%
17Total Shots4
10Corners1
9Fouls17
Shots
17Total Shots4
5On Target1
8Off Target3
4Blocked0
7Inside Box4
10Outside Box0
Passing
59%Possession41%
260Total Passes190
172Accurate Passes95
66%Pass Accuracy50%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls17
4Yellow Cards5
5Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Instituto Cordoba 1–0 San Martin S.J.

Instituto Cordoba beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 29, 2025.

Goals: N. Zalazar (87').

Instituto Cordoba controlled possession (59%) and registered 17 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Presidente Peron in Cordoba.