San Martin S.J. 2–1 Club Atlético Güemes

San Martin S.J.

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Club Atlético Güemes

2/21/2026

Primera Nacional · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

San Martin S.J.49%

×Draw28%

Club Atlético Güemes23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin S.J.Expected goals in this matchClub Atlético Güemes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.83

San Martin S.J.

1.36

Club Atlético Güemes

0.83

San Martin S.J. creates 64% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 98 away

1.51

creates per match

0.85

0.81

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

San Martin S.J.

1.51

Club Atlético Güemes

0.85

allows per match

San Martin S.J.

0.81

Club Atlético Güemes

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Club Atlético Güemes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw

77%

San Martin S.J. or Club Atlético Güemes

72%

Draw or Club Atlético Güemes

51%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+

24%

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals

74%

San Martin S.J. 2+ goals

39%

San Martin S.J. 3+ goals

16%

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals

56%

Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals

20%

Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)

68%

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.81 · 99 matches

Club Atlético Güemes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 1.51 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.36

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.85 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more

49%

level

28%

Club Atlético Güemes scores more

23%

San Martin S.J. at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff