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Club Atlético Güemes vs San Martin S.J. — Primera Nacional 2026

Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
7/1/2023Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Group A - 23Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes41%
×Draw32%
San Martin S.J.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Club Atlético Güemes
1.04
San Martin S.J.
0.79

Club Atlético Güemes creates 32% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.98
San Martin S.J.
0.76

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes
0.83
San Martin S.J.
1.11

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par
San Martin S.J.+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw
73%
Club Atlético Güemes or San Martin S.J.
68%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
59%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
16%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
65%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
28%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
9%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
55%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
19%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
60%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 100 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.11 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.98 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

San Martin S.J. attack 0.76 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more
41%
level
32%
San Martin S.J. scores more
27%

Club Atlético Güemes at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Club Atlético Güemes 4–0 San Martin S.J.

Club Atlético Güemes beat San Martin S.J. 4-0 in Primera Nacional on July 1, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda in Santiago del Estero, Prov. de Santiago del Estero.