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San Martin S.J. vs Atletico Tucuman — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
M. Coronel 10'
1/25/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 1Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

San Martin S.J.38%
×Draw29%
Atletico Tucuman32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin S.J.
1.14
Atletico Tucuman
1.02

San Martin S.J. creates 12% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 19 away

creates per match

San Martin S.J.
0.89
Atletico Tucuman
1.10

allows per match

San Martin S.J.
0.94
Atletico Tucuman
1.38

finishing

San Martin S.J.-0.09on par
Atletico Tucuman-0.52scores less

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin S.J. ↓

Atletico Tucuman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Martin S.J. or draw
68%
San Martin S.J. or Atletico Tucuman
71%
Draw or Atletico Tucuman
62%

Winning margin

San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
16%
Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
68%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
32%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
11%
Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
64%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
27%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
54%
Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin S.J. at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.94 · 5 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin S.J. attack 0.89 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.10 + San Martin S.J. defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

San Martin S.J. scores more
38%
level
29%
Atletico Tucuman scores more
32%

San Martin S.J. at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Martin S.J. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. de los SantosAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · D
7.7

Match Events

10'
M. Coronel↳ M. Bajamich
20'
L. Recalde
46'
L. T. Escalante← N. Pelaitay
46'
T. Fernandez← M. Casa
46'
F. Anselmo← F. Gonzalez
60'
R. Caseres
65'
J. Menendez← E. Montagna
66'
D. Martinez← M. Brandan
66'
R. Ruiz← M. Bajamich
67'
N. Franco← M. Coronel
75'
H. Tijanovich← S. Gonzalez
76'
D. Martinez
79'
M. Brizuela← R. Tesuri
86'
R. Melo← G. Acosta
90+5'
J. Infante

Possession

61%San

Shots

11San

Pass accuracy

53%San

Statistics

SanAtletico
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots13
5Corners0
11Fouls18
Shots
11Total Shots13
1On Target5
5Off Target3
5Blocked5
5Inside Box8
6Outside Box5
Passing
61%Possession39%
448Total Passes286
340Accurate Passes194
76%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
2Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Martin S.J. 0–1 Atletico Tucuman

Atletico Tucuman beat San Martin S.J. 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on January 25, 2025.

Goals: M. Coronel (10').

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Ingeniero Hilario Sánchez in San Juan.