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Atletico Tucuman vs San Martin S.J. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Martin S.J.
San Martin S.J.
N. Lamendola 90'
N. Franco 4'
C. D. Ferreira Namandu 90' (OG)
7/13/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Atletico Tucuman49%
×Draw29%
San Martin S.J.23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.31
San Martin S.J.
0.80

Atletico Tucuman creates 64% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.36
San Martin S.J.
0.77

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.84
San Martin S.J.
1.25

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.08on par
San Martin S.J.-0.10scores less

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

San Martin S.J. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
77%
Atletico Tucuman or San Martin S.J.
71%
Draw or San Martin S.J.
51%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
23%
San Martin S.J. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
73%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
38%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
14%
San Martin S.J. 1+ goals
55%
San Martin S.J. 2+ goals
19%
San Martin S.J. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
68%
San Martin S.J. (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.84 · 18 matches

San Martin S.J. away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.25 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.36 + San Martin S.J. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Martin S.J. attack 0.77 + Atletico Tucuman defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
49%
level
29%
San Martin S.J. scores more
23%

Atletico Tucuman at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
J. GonzalezAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · G
7.5

Match Events

4'
N. Franco↳ M. Coronel
26'
Kevin Lopez
41'
Carlos Auzqui
56'
M. Brizuela← I. Galvan
56'
R. Ruiz← C. Auzqui
58'
Alejandro Molina
61'
A. Portillo← A. Molina
61'
S. Salle← S. Gonzalez
67'
N. Lamendola← N. Franco
67'
K. Ortiz← K. Lopez
74'
Esteban Burgos
74'
F. Toloza← T. Fernandez
79'
Nicolas Watson
84'
M. Bajamich← M. Coronel
84'
S. Jaurena← E. Burgos
84'
J. Menendez← H. Tijanovich
90'
C. D. Ferreira NamanduOwn goal
90'
N. Lamendola↳ R. Ruiz

Possession

38%Atletico

Shots

8Atletico

Pass accuracy

48%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoSan
Overview
38%Possession62%
8Total Shots10
0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.92
3Corners7
16Fouls11
Shots
8Total Shots10
3On Target4
5Off Target6
0Blocked0
6Inside Box7
2Outside Box3
Passing
38%Possession62%
256Total Passes402
180Accurate Passes308
70%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
-0.80Goals Prevented-0.80
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 2–1 San Martin S.J.

Atletico Tucuman beat San Martin S.J. 2-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on July 13, 2025.

Goals: N. Franco (4'), C. D. Ferreira Namandu (90' o.g.), N. Lamendola (90').

San Martin S.J. controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro in Tucuman.