San Martin Formosa 1–2 Defensores de Belgrano VR

San Martin Formosa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Defensores de Belgrano VR

D. Velázquez 48'

C. Romero 45' (pen)

L. Monzón 26'

1/31/2020

Torneo Federal A · North - 17Estadio Antonio Romero (Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

San Martin Formosa55%

×Draw26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Martin FormosaExpected goals in this matchDefensores de Belgrano VR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.79

San Martin Formosa

1.54

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.79

San Martin Formosa creates 95% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 116 away

1.73

creates per match

0.90

0.67

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

San Martin Formosa

1.73

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.90

allows per match

San Martin Formosa

0.67

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Martin Formosa+0.00on par

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Formosa ↓

Defensores de Belgrano VR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

San Martin Formosa or draw

81%

San Martin Formosa or Defensores de Belgrano VR

74%

Draw or Defensores de Belgrano VR

45%

Winning margin

San Martin Formosa wins by 2+

29%

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

San Martin Formosa 1+ goals

79%

San Martin Formosa 2+ goals

45%

San Martin Formosa 3+ goals

20%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

55%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

19%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

San Martin Formosa (draw refunded)

74%

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Formosa at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.67 · 96 matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Formosa attack 1.73 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 0.90 + San Martin Formosa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

San Martin Formosa scores more

55%

level

26%

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

19%

San Martin Formosa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "San Martin Formosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

L. Monzón

45'

C. RomeroPenalty

46'

F. Cabral← G. Alegre

48'

D. Velázquez

69'

W. Serrano← N. Czornomaz

71'

G. Pereyra← L. Pietkewicz

77'

C. Taborda← D. Velázquez

83'

F. Campiotti← L. Jofré

90'

J. Aguilar← L. Monzón

San

Defensores

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Velázquez

Benítez

Manager: R. Pancaldo

46'▲F. Cabral←▼G. Alegre

71'▲G. Pereyra←▼L. Pietkewicz

77'▲C. Taborda←▼D. Velázquez

San Martin Formosa substitutes

CabralPereyraTaborda

Manager: H. Storti

69'▲W. Serrano←▼N. Czornomaz

83'▲F. Campiotti←▼L. Jofré

90'▲J. Aguilar←▼L. Monzón

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

SerranoCampiottiAguilar

Match Recap: San Martin Formosa vs Defensores de Belgrano VR

Defensores de Belgrano VR beat San Martin Formosa 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on January 31, 2020.

Goals: L. Monzón (26'), C. Romero (45' pen), D. Velázquez (48').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Romero (Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa).

San Martin Formosa vs Defensores de Belgrano VR — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: San Martin Formosa vs Defensores de Belgrano VR