Defensores de Belgrano VR 1–2 San Martin Formosa

Defensores de Belgrano VR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

San Martin Formosa

M. Jaime 75'

C. Ibarra 56', 36'

3/27/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 1Estadio Salomón Boeseldín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Defensores de Belgrano VR46%

×Draw29%

San Martin Formosa25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Defensores de Belgrano VRExpected goals in this matchSan Martin Formosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.24

San Martin Formosa

0.84

Defensores de Belgrano VR creates 48% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 98 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

1.13

San Martin Formosa

0.80

allows per match

Defensores de Belgrano VR

0.88

San Martin Formosa

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Defensores de Belgrano VR+0.00on par

San Martin Formosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Defensores de Belgrano VR ↓

San Martin Formosa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Defensores de Belgrano VR or draw

75%

Defensores de Belgrano VR or San Martin Formosa

71%

Draw or San Martin Formosa

54%

Winning margin

Defensores de Belgrano VR wins by 2+

20%

San Martin Formosa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Defensores de Belgrano VR 1+ goals

71%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 2+ goals

35%

Defensores de Belgrano VR 3+ goals

13%

San Martin Formosa 1+ goals

57%

San Martin Formosa 2+ goals

21%

San Martin Formosa 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Defensores de Belgrano VR (draw refunded)

64%

San Martin Formosa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Defensores de Belgrano VR at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.88 · 112 matches

San Martin Formosa away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Defensores de Belgrano VR attack 1.13 + San Martin Formosa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

San Martin Formosa attack 0.80 + Defensores de Belgrano VR defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Defensores de Belgrano VR scores more

46%

level

29%

San Martin Formosa scores more

25%

Defensores de Belgrano VR at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Defensores de Belgrano VR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

C. Ibarra

56'

C. Ibarra

59'

A. Laena← I. Artola

59'

M. Jaime← J. Cartechini

59'

B. Godoy← M. Pabón

59'

L. Pietkewicz← V. Rodríguez

71'

M. Bobadilla← C. Ibarra

75'

M. Jaime

77'

J. Malinauskas← J. Ceballos

81'

L. Bazán← L. Beterette

81'

J. Bonet← A. Toledo

83'

L. Velasco← G. Cepeda

Defensores

San

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Yaworski

59'▲A. Laena←▼I. Artola

59'▲M. Jaime←▼J. Cartechini

59'▲B. Godoy←▼M. Pabón

77'▲J. Malinauskas←▼J. Ceballos

83'▲L. Velasco←▼G. Cepeda

Defensores de Belgrano VR substitutes

LaenaJaimeGodoyMalinauskasVelasco

Manager: V. Godoy

59'▲L. Pietkewicz←▼V. Rodríguez

71'▲M. Bobadilla←▼C. Ibarra

81'▲L. Bazán←▼L. Beterette

81'▲J. Bonet←▼A. Toledo

San Martin Formosa substitutes

PietkewiczBobadillaBazánBonet