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San Martin Formosa vs AH Zapla — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
AH Zapla
AH Zapla
3/9/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 7Estadio Antonio Romero (Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Martin Formosa69%
×Draw22%
AH Zapla10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Martin Formosa
1.78
AH Zapla
0.50

San Martin Formosa creates 256% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 12 away

creates per match

San Martin Formosa
1.73
AH Zapla
0.33

allows per match

San Martin Formosa
0.67
AH Zapla
1.83

finishing

San Martin Formosa+0.00on par
AH Zapla+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Martin Formosa ↓

AH Zapla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Martin Formosa or draw
90%
San Martin Formosa or AH Zapla
78%
Draw or AH Zapla
31%

Winning margin

San Martin Formosa wins by 2+
41%
AH Zapla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

San Martin Formosa 1+ goals
83%
San Martin Formosa 2+ goals
53%
San Martin Formosa 3+ goals
26%
AH Zapla 1+ goals
39%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
9%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

San Martin Formosa (draw refunded)
88%
AH Zapla (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Martin Formosa at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.67 · 96 matches

AH Zapla away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Martin Formosa attack 1.73 + AH Zapla defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.78

AH Zapla attack 0.33 + San Martin Formosa defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

San Martin Formosa scores more
69%
level
22%
AH Zapla scores more
10%

San Martin Formosa at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "San Martin Formosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Martin Formosa 2 – 1 AH Zapla

San Martin Formosa beat AH Zapla 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Romero (Ciudad de Formosa, Provincia de Formosa).