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AH Zapla vs San Martin Formosa — Torneo Federal A 2018

AH Zapla
AH Zapla
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa
2/9/2019Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · 2nd Phase Reválida 1 - 2Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

AH Zapla43%
×Draw31%
San Martin Formosa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AH Zapla
1.14
San Martin Formosa
0.81

AH Zapla creates 41% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 98 away

creates per match

AH Zapla
0.92
San Martin Formosa
0.80

allows per match

AH Zapla
0.83
San Martin Formosa
1.35

finishing

AH Zapla+0.00on par
San Martin Formosa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AH Zapla ↓

San Martin Formosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

AH Zapla or draw
74%
AH Zapla or San Martin Formosa
69%
Draw or San Martin Formosa
57%

Winning margin

AH Zapla wins by 2+
18%
San Martin Formosa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AH Zapla 1+ goals
68%
AH Zapla 2+ goals
32%
AH Zapla 3+ goals
11%
San Martin Formosa 1+ goals
56%
San Martin Formosa 2+ goals
19%
San Martin Formosa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AH Zapla (draw refunded)
63%
San Martin Formosa (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AH Zapla at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

San Martin Formosa away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AH Zapla attack 0.92 + San Martin Formosa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.14

San Martin Formosa attack 0.80 + AH Zapla defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

AH Zapla scores more
43%
level
31%
San Martin Formosa scores more
26%

AH Zapla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "AH Zapla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AH Zapla 1 – 1 San Martin Formosa

AH Zapla and San Martin Formosa drew 1-1 in Torneo Federal A on February 9, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Coronel Emilio Fabrizzi (Palpalá, Provincia de Jujuy).