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San Marcos vs FC Cajamarca — Segunda División 2018

San Marcos
San Marcos
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
5/2/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Olimpico de San Marcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

San Marcos49%
×Draw27%
FC Cajamarca24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos
1.42
FC Cajamarca
0.92

San Marcos creates 54% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 12 away

creates per match

San Marcos
1.59
FC Cajamarca
0.75

allows per match

San Marcos
1.09
FC Cajamarca
1.25

finishing

San Marcos+0.00on par
FC Cajamarca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos ↓

FC Cajamarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

San Marcos or draw
76%
San Marcos or FC Cajamarca
73%
Draw or FC Cajamarca
51%

Winning margin

San Marcos wins by 2+
24%
FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Marcos 1+ goals
76%
San Marcos 2+ goals
41%
San Marcos 3+ goals
17%
FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
60%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
23%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

San Marcos (draw refunded)
67%
FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

FC Cajamarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos attack 1.59 + FC Cajamarca defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

FC Cajamarca attack 0.75 + San Marcos defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Marcos scores more
49%
level
27%
FC Cajamarca scores more
24%

San Marcos at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Marcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: San Marcos 2–0 FC Cajamarca

San Marcos beat FC Cajamarca 2-0 in Segunda División on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de San Marcos in Lima.