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FC Cajamarca vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

FC Cajamarca
FC Cajamarca
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
San Marcos
San Marcos
6/20/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 12Estadio Cristo es el Señor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Cajamarca67%
×Draw20%
San Marcos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Cajamarca
2.00
San Marcos
0.74

FC Cajamarca creates 170% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 22 away

creates per match

FC Cajamarca
2.17
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

FC Cajamarca
0.67
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

FC Cajamarca+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Cajamarca ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

FC Cajamarca or draw
87%
FC Cajamarca or San Marcos
80%
Draw or San Marcos
33%

Winning margin

FC Cajamarca wins by 2+
42%
San Marcos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Cajamarca 1+ goals
86%
FC Cajamarca 2+ goals
59%
FC Cajamarca 3+ goals
32%
San Marcos 1+ goals
52%
San Marcos 2+ goals
17%
San Marcos 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

FC Cajamarca (draw refunded)
84%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Cajamarca at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Cajamarca attack 2.17 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 2.00

San Marcos attack 0.82 + FC Cajamarca defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

FC Cajamarca scores more
67%
level
20%
San Marcos scores more
13%

FC Cajamarca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Cajamarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Cajamarca 1 – 0 San Marcos

FC Cajamarca beat San Marcos 1-0 in Segunda División on June 20, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Cristo es el Señor in Cajamarca.