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San Marcos vs Carlos Stein — Segunda División 2018

San Marcos
San Marcos
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
4/29/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Municipal de Recuay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

San Marcos62%
×Draw20%
Carlos Stein18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos
2.19
Carlos Stein
1.09

San Marcos creates 101% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 34 away

creates per match

San Marcos
1.59
Carlos Stein
1.09

allows per match

San Marcos
1.09
Carlos Stein
2.79

finishing

San Marcos+0.00on par
Carlos Stein+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos ↓

Carlos Stein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

San Marcos or draw
82%
San Marcos or Carlos Stein
80%
Draw or Carlos Stein
38%

Winning margin

San Marcos wins by 2+
39%
Carlos Stein wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Marcos 1+ goals
89%
San Marcos 2+ goals
64%
San Marcos 3+ goals
37%
Carlos Stein 1+ goals
66%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
30%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Marcos (draw refunded)
78%
Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Carlos Stein away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos attack 1.59 + Carlos Stein defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.19

Carlos Stein attack 1.09 + San Marcos defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

San Marcos scores more
62%
level
20%
Carlos Stein scores more
18%

San Marcos at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "San Marcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: San Marcos 3–1 Carlos Stein

San Marcos beat Carlos Stein 3-1 in Segunda División on April 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Recuay in Recuay.