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Carlos Stein vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Carlos Stein
Carlos Stein
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
San Marcos
San Marcos
6/24/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 13Estadio de la Juventud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Carlos Stein37%
×Draw24%
San Marcos39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carlos Stein
1.47
San Marcos
1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 22 away

creates per match

Carlos Stein
1.12
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Carlos Stein
2.24
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Carlos Stein+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlos Stein ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Carlos Stein or draw
61%
Carlos Stein or San Marcos
76%
Draw or San Marcos
63%

Winning margin

Carlos Stein wins by 2+
17%
San Marcos wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Carlos Stein 1+ goals
77%
Carlos Stein 2+ goals
43%
Carlos Stein 3+ goals
18%
San Marcos 1+ goals
78%
San Marcos 2+ goals
45%
San Marcos 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Carlos Stein (draw refunded)
48%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlos Stein at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlos Stein attack 1.12 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.47

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Carlos Stein defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Carlos Stein scores more
37%
level
24%
San Marcos scores more
39%

San Marcos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "San Marcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Carlos Stein 1–2 San Marcos

San Marcos beat Carlos Stein 2-1 in Segunda División on June 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de la Juventud in Chongoyape.