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San Marcos vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

San Marcos
San Marcos
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
8/18/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Round - 2Estadio Rosas Pampa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

San Marcos48%
×Draw24%
Ayacucho FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Marcos
1.73
Ayacucho FC
1.27

San Marcos creates 36% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

San Marcos
1.59
Ayacucho FC
1.45

allows per match

San Marcos
1.09
Ayacucho FC
1.86

finishing

San Marcos+0.00on par
Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Marcos ↓

Ayacucho FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

San Marcos or draw
72%
San Marcos or Ayacucho FC
76%
Draw or Ayacucho FC
52%

Winning margin

San Marcos wins by 2+
26%
Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Marcos 1+ goals
82%
San Marcos 2+ goals
52%
San Marcos 3+ goals
25%
Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
72%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
36%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

San Marcos (draw refunded)
63%
Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Marcos at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Marcos attack 1.59 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + San Marcos defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Marcos scores more
48%
level
24%
Ayacucho FC scores more
28%

San Marcos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Marcos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: San Marcos 4–3 Ayacucho FC

San Marcos beat Ayacucho FC 4-3 in Segunda División on August 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Rosas Pampa in Huaraz.