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Ayacucho FC vs San Marcos — Segunda División 2018

Ayacucho FC
Ayacucho FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
San Marcos
San Marcos
9/12/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Promotion Round - 7Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Ayacucho FC49%
×Draw25%
San Marcos25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayacucho FC
1.56
San Marcos
1.04

Ayacucho FC creates 50% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Ayacucho FC
1.30
San Marcos
0.82

allows per match

Ayacucho FC
1.27
San Marcos
1.82

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par
San Marcos+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

San Marcos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw
75%
Ayacucho FC or San Marcos
75%
Draw or San Marcos
51%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+
25%
San Marcos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals
79%
Ayacucho FC 2+ goals
46%
Ayacucho FC 3+ goals
21%
San Marcos 1+ goals
65%
San Marcos 2+ goals
28%
San Marcos 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)
66%
San Marcos (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

San Marcos away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.30 + San Marcos defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.56

San Marcos attack 0.82 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more
49%
level
25%
San Marcos scores more
25%

Ayacucho FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Ayacucho FC 2–3 San Marcos

San Marcos beat Ayacucho FC 3-2 in Segunda División on September 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Cumaná in Ayacucho.