San Marcos de Arica vs Lautaro de Buin — Segunda División 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
San Marcos de Arica63%
Lautaro de Buin15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Marcos de Arica creates 147% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 58 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Marcos de Arica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Marcos de Arica at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.36 · 11 matches
Lautaro de Buin away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.52 · 58 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Marcos de Arica attack 2.09 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.80
Lautaro de Buin attack 1.09 + San Marcos de Arica defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.73
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 63%?"
San Marcos de Arica at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 63% does not mean "San Marcos de Arica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Fernández VialLautaro de Buin
Recoleta
General Velásquez
Colchagua
Iberia
San Antonio Unido
Independiente
Colina
Concepción
Deportes Vallenar
Linares UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Marcos de Arica host Lautaro de Buin on Sunday, 17 April 2022 at 01:00. The match is part of the Segunda División 2020/2021 season.
San Marcos de Arica 3 – 0 Lautaro de Buin
San Marcos de Arica beat Lautaro de Buin 3-0 in Segunda División on April 17, 2022.
The match was played at Estadio Carlos Dittborn in Arica.