Lautaro de Buin 2–1 San Marcos de Arica

Lautaro de Buin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

San Marcos de Arica

7/23/2022

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Bicentenario Lucio Fariña

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Lautaro de Buin41%

×Draw27%

San Marcos de Arica32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lautaro de BuinExpected goals in this matchSan Marcos de Arica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.13

Lautaro de Buin

1.31

San Marcos de Arica

1.13

Lautaro de Buin creates 16% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

1.63

creates per match

1.00

1.25

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.63

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

allows per match

Lautaro de Buin

1.25

San Marcos de Arica

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lautaro de Buin+0.00on par

San Marcos de Arica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lautaro de Buin ↓

San Marcos de Arica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Lautaro de Buin or draw

68%

Lautaro de Buin or San Marcos de Arica

73%

Draw or San Marcos de Arica

59%

Winning margin

Lautaro de Buin wins by 2+

18%

San Marcos de Arica wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Lautaro de Buin 1+ goals

73%

Lautaro de Buin 2+ goals

38%

Lautaro de Buin 3+ goals

14%

San Marcos de Arica 1+ goals

68%

San Marcos de Arica 2+ goals

31%

San Marcos de Arica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lautaro de Buin (draw refunded)

56%

San Marcos de Arica (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lautaro de Buin at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lautaro de Buin attack 1.63 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + Lautaro de Buin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Lautaro de Buin scores more

41%

level

27%

San Marcos de Arica scores more

32%

Lautaro de Buin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Lautaro de Buin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff